Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, March 30th

Monday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory despite the weekend escalation news from the Middle East and another increase in oil prices. Stocks are erasing overnight futures losses to start the new week with gains of 228 points and 2 points in the Dow and Nasdaq respectively. The bond market is rallying, currently up 20/32 (4.35%), which should cause an improvement of approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates.

20/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.35%

228

Dow

45,395

2

NASDAQ

20,950

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Unknown

None

There is no relevant economic data set for release today. The rest of the holiday-shortened week has five monthly economic reports scheduled that are likely to influence mortgage rates. Three of them are considered to be highly important and can cause a big move. In addition to the data, we will also be following Iran-related headlines and a large number of Fed-member speaking engagements.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

Fed Chairman Powell has a speaking event that starts at 10:30 AM ET this morning. He will be participating in a moderated discussion with a Harvard economics class in Cambridge, Massachusetts. This is one of the speaking events that is more likely to draw a reaction in the markets than the other speeches scheduled this week. There is little doubt that inflation and the impact the Iran war is having on the economy are topics that will be discussed, meaning we could see a response during late morning or early afternoon trading.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start this week’s economic releases at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, will post this index that tells us how confident consumers are about their own financial situations. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumers that feel better about their finances usually spend more and consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are predicting a decline, bringing the index down to 88.0 this month from February's 91.2. A lower than predicted reading would be considered good news for mortgage rates.

High

Unknown

Retail Sales

Overall, Wednesday is a good candidate to see the biggest move in rates with the ADP employment, Retail Sales and ISM manufacturing reports all set for release. Anytime the governmental Employment report is released, that day automatically becomes a strong possibility also. The calmest day could be Thursday unless something unexpected happens.

---

Unknown

Holiday Schedule

We have a correction to make on the Good Friday holiday schedule. The bond market will be open Friday morning for trading and will have an opportunity to react to March’s Employment report before closing at noon ET. We mistakenly read the industry’s recommended holiday schedule, saying in last night’s weekly preview that the bond market will be closed Friday and close early Thursday. It appears that bonds will trade a full day Thursday and will close early Friday.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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