Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, April 15th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory to take back some of yesterday’s rally. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 120 points and the Nasdaq up 150 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.27%), but gains late yesterday should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point lower than Tuesday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement yesterday, you may see a small increase this morning, depending on the size of the intraday revision.

6/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.27%

120

Dow

48,415

150

NASDAQ

23,789

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Iran War Headlines

We have no relevant economic data to be concerned about this morning. There is little to drive trading this morning after yesterday’s intraday rally. Those gains were fueled by news that a second round of peace talks with Iran could be starting this week. The markets, looking for any reason to be optimistic, rallied throughout Tuesday afternoon. Bonds moved enough for many lenders to issue an intraday improvement to rates before closing. With no follow-up headlines this morning to sustain the rally, we are seeing some traders take a bit more cautious position in case the peace talks don’t go well.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Beige Book

There is an afternoon event today that may affect bond trading and possibly mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be released at 2:00 PM ET today, making this a midafternoon event for rates. It will give us insight into economic conditions throughout the country by Fed region via their business contacts. This information is heavily relied on by the Fed when making monetary policy decisions during their FOMC meetings. Traders will be looking for changes in inflation, employment and overall economic activity since the last update. Good news for rates would be signs of easing inflation (unlikely since oil and gas prices spiked last month) and weakness in the employment sector that could push the Fed to make a rate cut sooner than later.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

This week’s economic releases will come to an end tomorrow morning with the release of two moderately important reports. First will be last week’s unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 215,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week’s 219,000 initial claims. Declining claims for jobless benefits are a sign of strength in the employment sector, so an unexpected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, since this is only a weekly snapshot it usually doesn’t have a strong influence on rates unless the number varies greatly from forecasts.

Medium

Unknown

Industrial Production

March's Industrial Production data will be posted at 9:15 AM ET tomorrow. It helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Analysts are predicting a 0.1% increase in production, hinting at modest strength in the manufacturing sector. This data is considered to be only moderately important for the markets though. Weaker manufacturing activity is generally considered to be favorable news for mortgage rates, so a decline in output could help push rates slightly lower, assuming no major news comes from the Middle East.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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