Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, June 20th

Thursday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory, extending yesterday’s post-FOMC rally. The major stock indexes are also showing strong gains with the Dow up 188 points and the Nasdaq up 59 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (1.98%), which with yesterday’s late gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point if comparing to Wednesday’s early pricing. If you saw a rate improvement yesterday afternoon, you should see a move less than the .375 this morning.

12/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.98%

188

Dow

26,692

59

NASDAQ

8,047

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment figures showed that 216,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed, down from the previous week’s 222,000 initial filings. A decline in claims is a sign of a strengthening employment sector, so we should consider the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this report is only a weekly snapshot and doesn’t carry too much weight in the markets. That is why we haven’t seen a reaction in this morning’s mortgage rates.

Low

Positive

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Also posted this morning was May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). It revealed no change compared to the 0.1% increase that was expected. The softer reading is favorable for bonds and mortgage rates because the indicators attempt to predict economic growth over the next several months. This is a minor piece of data that showed a small variance from forecasts, meaning we likely won’t see the markets react to it. Still, it is good news for mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Tomorrow has one report set for release that may influence mortgage rates. That will be the National Association of Realtor’s Existing Home Sales report for May at 10:00 AM ET. This report tracks resales of existing homes, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets, but can also influence mortgage rates if it shows a sizable difference between forecasts and actual results. Analysts are currently expecting to see an increase in sales. As with most economic reports we get, weak numbers would be favorable to mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Affordable Mortgage Financing LLC

608-372-9222
bjpetroselli@centurytel.net


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